Earth Systems Stabilization Fund
Averting Catastrophic Climate Risks
Climate change is destabilizing the earth systems society depends on. Antarctic glaciers are at risk of collapse, potentially raising sea levels by up to two meters and displacing hundreds of millions of people. The Atlantic currents that keep Europe warm and shape monsoon rains are at risk of shutting down. And loss of sea ice and cloud cover are accelerating warming, bringing more heat and more suffering to billions of people living in hot countries without adequate protection.
Eliminating greenhouse gas emissions is more urgent than ever. But emissions reductions alone can no longer prevent catastrophe. Feedback loops and tipping points could trigger sudden, irreversible changes in these systems — changes that in turn threaten the political, economic, and social order built on top of them. The window to act is closing.
Increasing ecosystem emissions +
Rising temperatures are increasing emissions from ecosystems. Tropical wetland outgassing, thawing permafrost, and forest fires account for a growing share of total emissions. These feedback loops could amplify global warming by 30%.
Declining planetary reflectivity +
Declining cloud cover and sea ice are making the Earth less reflective, causing it to absorb much more solar energy. The increased absorption of solar energy since 2000 is equivalent to all human CO₂ emissions since 1750.
Rising sea levels +
Sea levels are now predicted to rise 2–7 feet by 2100 which would displace hundreds of millions of people. More than 90% of risk and uncertainty is due to instability in the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, which can no longer be stabilized just by lowering emissions or atmospheric temperatures.
Weakening ocean currents +
A massive system of ocean currents called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could significantly weaken this century. This would severely disrupt Asian and West African monsoons and shift the global tropical rainbelt southward, causing major droughts in some regions and catastrophic flooding in others.
The good news is that there may be a toolbox to manage these risks. New tools could create early-warning systems, directly reduce warming, help stabilize Earth systems, and dramatically reduce suffering while decarbonization continues. We need to better understand the risks and evaluate additional tools to help manage them safely and effectively.
Support this Work
This fund supports critical research and field building for Earth systems stabilization.Together we can reduce catastrophic climate risk and work towards a stable, thriving planet.
Donate now or reach out to kelly@outlierprojects.org to learn more.
Read more about how this work could avert catastrophic harm in a new report “Earth Systems Risks and the Case for Funding Stabilization Research” by Rethink Priorities.
100% of your donation will go directly to efforts to supporting critical research and field building for Earth systems stabilization. Outlier Projects does not retain any portion. Outlier Projects is a tax-exempt 501(c)3 organization, and your donation is tax-deductible as allowed by law.