Session 17

Rising Faster Than Expected: Rethinking Sea-Level Forecasts

March 10th, 2026

Sea-level rise is outpacing widely used projections, revealing a persistent low-end bias in current models. Whereas the last IPCC assessment projected our current warming trajectory would raise sea levels roughly 2 feet by 2100, the latest data and analyses now predict 4-7 feet. In this session, Dr. Brent Minchew walks through the scientific evidence behind the forecast gap, explores key sources of uncertainty not fully captured in current forecasts, such as ice-sheet dynamics, and discuss the human and financial impacts.