Session 16

A Large Overlooked Climate Risk: Earth’s Declining Reflectivity

February 24th, 2026

Since 2000, the Earth has rapidly become less reflective, causing it to absorb significantly more solar energy. This additional energy is equivalent to about 2,400 billion tons of additional CO₂ emissions, roughly three times humanity’s cumulative emissions during this period. The decline in Earth’s reflectivity appears to be (at least partially) driven by declining cloud cover and potentially by the cleanup of particulate pollution, though a full explanation remains unclear.

In this session, we are joined by Dr. Phil Duffy, a leading climate scientist who previously served in the Obama and Biden White House OSTP and was the President and ED of Woodwell Climate Research Center. Phil explains what is known and not yet known in regard to earth’s declining reflectivity. In conversation and through research, we explored the associated concerning trends and the research needed to shed further light on them.