Session 12

Derailment Risk: A Strategic Blind Spot

December 2, 2025

As the world heads deeper into the new nonlinear climate reality, how will we maintain our ability to act? It is often assumed that our agency will only grow as climate impacts escalate: a positive feedback, in which worsening climate consequences reinforce climate action. But the opposite can also happen. This is called derailment risk: the risk that climate consequences undermine climate action, derailing the world from pathways to avoiding worst case outcomes. In this learning session, Laurie Laybourn explores the latest research on derailment and approaches to mitigating this risk so that climate agency is maintained.

Laurie Laybourn is Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative and a fellow at both Chatham House and the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter. 

view session materials