Outlier Projects accelerates frontier research to predict and prevent catastrophic climate risks.

The climate stands on a knife’s edge. The world is blowing past the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit. Hotter temperatures threaten to activate runaway feedback loops and trigger planetary tipping points, like the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Decarbonization and adaptation are more essential than ever. But they may not be enough to safely manage “temperature overshoot,” including the danger that climate disasters could derail decarbonization and adaptation themselves.

That’s why we need to improve the forecasting of catastrophic risks and evaluate tools that could stabilize climate systems at the necessary speed and scale.

Outlier Projects supports skilled teams that coordinate and fund rigorous research, and spur governments to do the same.

Picture of the Thwaites Glacier, located on the Antarctic continent.

Thwaites Glacier by NASA/James Yungel

Glacier Stabilization

To reduce sea-level rise

Sea level rise could be both the largest and least understood climate risk facing the planet, yet research on its drivers receives paltry funding. Scientists warn that sea levels could rise anywhere from 2 to 7 feet by 2100, displacing 50 to 500 million people (for context, WWII displaced 60 million). The biggest threat is the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, which could trigger 3-4 feet of sea level rise.

To manage these risks, we urgently need to upgrade our forecasting capabilities and evaluate how to prevent worst case scenarios. The bad news is that eliminating emissions will not prevent the collapse of Thwaites and other critical glaciers. The good news is that glaciologists have begun to study the conditions under which glaciers already naturally refreeze themselves and how to replicate them.

Current Grantees

Past Grantees

Super Pollutant Abatement & Removal

To rapidly counter warming

Super pollutants like methane and nitrous oxide are responsible for half of all warming, yet receive only a tiny fraction of climate mitigation funding. Many promising abatement solutions already exist and merit faster deployment. But we also urgently need to accelerate R&D of more scalable solutions for challenges like pasture-based livestock, which produce about 90% of global livestock methane emissions.

Warming is also causing natural systems like wetlands and permafrost to release more methane, raising the risk of runaway feedback loops. One way to manage this risk could be methane removal, for example, by enhancing natural atmospheric oxidation pathways. But such approaches are still very early-stage and require much more research.

Current Grantees

Picture of the Earth's stratosphere, taken at a very high elevation above the earth.

Sunlight Reflection

To rapidly counter warming

The Earth reflects approximately 30% of the sunlight that reaches it. Reflecting just 1% more, potentially by releasing small particles into the stratosphere, could offset an entire 1°C of global warming. But such approaches also carry risks. That’s why the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the World Climate Research Programme have all called for more research. Yet research funding from governments and philanthropies is still far from sufficient to enable informed decisionmaking. We support several organizations advancing scientific and public understanding of sunlight reflection methods (SRM), including in the Global South.

Sunlight Reflection Grantees

Picture taken above, of ocean waves breaking on a rocky shore.

Open-System Carbon Removal

To return atmospheric CO2 to safe levels over the long term

Scaling carbon removal to multiple gigatons per year, as the IPCC calls for, will likely require substantial contributions from “open system” pathways that enhance existing natural processes. One suite of pathways that could be particularly permanent and scalable is called ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE).

The ocean is already a huge carbon sponge, locking away about a third of CO2 emissions. OAE techniques, many of which involve adding alkaline minerals to the ocean or coastal areas, could potentially enable the ocean to pull gigatons of additional CO2 from the air each year while also providing local relief from ocean acidification.